NationRight

Stream of consciousness notes during the debate…

The very first question, McCain mentions Fannie Mae, giving him a great opportunity to bring up Obama’s assocation with former Fannie CEO Franklin Raines.  Of course, he doesn’t!

Obama’s idea of allowing people to take money from their IRA or 401(k) penalty-free is ridiculous.  The wrong thing to do is encourage people not to save money!  Of course, McCain wants to help by cutting capital gains taxes right now; who has capital gains right now?  Neither of these guys has a clue!

McCain is doing well with the “Joe the Plumber” story; Obama avoided the truth by focusing on Joe’s income tax, not his business tax, which is what will increase.  He got him again on the “spread the wealth” comment, exposing Obama as the socialist that he is.  Obama still doesn’t address the real question here.  McCain, maybe for the first time in any debate, is hammering him!

As usual, Obama has no specifics about what programs he is going to cut.  At least McCain says it will be an across-the-board “hatchet.”  Neither candidate wants to admit that they cannot do everything they are promising.  McCain’s earmark talking is hollow after he voted for the earmark-laden bailout; if he had voted against that crap, he might be winning right now!

“Senator Obama, I am not President Bush.”  Finally, he said it; it should have been said two months ago.  This is the McCain from the Republican primary that, as a Romney supporter, I hated!  Where has he been the past two months?  Obama is getting upset, even jumping on Fox News.

McCain is tossed a softball opportunity to hammer Obama on his associations.  He’s taking a little different tack by accusing Obama supporters of lying about McCain’s associations.  Obama’s referring to CBS polls to support his point; that’s pretty weak.  I wish McCain would hammer him about his associations instead of his negative ads.

Finally, McCain brings up Bill Ayers and ACORN.  Obama tries to write off his past associations to Ayers; not much there.  Obama says that his ONLY involvement with ACORN is representing them in the motor-voter issues; the facts do not support that.  Obama thinks that naming 3 or 4 reputable people today makes up for his terrible choices in the past.

Joe BIden is “one of the finest public servants to ever serve.”  Wow, I didn’t know that!  McCain is just going over the “reformer” talking points about Gov. Palin; why doesn’t he say, “She’s just a regular American; she understands what Americans go through every day.”  McCain saves himself on this segment by turning back to Obama’s tax and spend rhetoric.

McCain’s missing the point on the reducing dependence on foreign oil question.  He’s talking about 10 years when the question was a 4-year time frame.  Obama does the same.

Now Obama’s now an unapologetic protectionist?  McCain hits Obama on his eloquence; he could have dug deeper on this one, but at least he is being aggressive.

On to health care. Obama’s plan is just more government spending that we cannot afford.  McCain has the better plan here, he is just incapable of explaining it to people.  Obama is simply lying about not fining small businesses for not providing healthcare; his own website says otherwise.  Obama keeps saying that health care benefits are not taxed today.  Health care benefits are taxed today; health insurance premiums are not!  The health insurance thing is simple: McCain wants to allow consumers to get involved in making choices in the market which he feels will improve the system and lower costs; Obama wants the government to fix it by wealth redistribution.  Its free market vs. socialism.

McCain’s Supreme Court Justice answer was good.  Obama believes that a Supreme Court Justice’s most important responsibility is to provide fairness and justice to the American people.  Absolutely untrue!  A Supreme Court Justice’s only responsibility is to uphold the Constitution of the United States of America!  McCain should bring that up.  He doesn’t, but he brings out Obama’s very liberal record on abortion that, I think, the vast majority of Americans disagree with.

On to education… Shockingly, Obama thinks we need to spend more money on it!  He wants to make college more affordable; I wonder how he will do that?  This guy is such a big-government socialist, it makes me sick!  Finally, Obama says the only thing that I have agreed with him on from day one: parents must take a more active role in their children’s education.  McCain gives the usual Republican school choice stuff.  I wish he (and all Republicans) would talk about the root cause of our education problems: the overbearing power of teacher’s unions.  Obama slams No Child Left Behind, which does basically what he just said he wants to do.  His problem with it?  Not enough money!  Truly shocking!

In his closing argument, McCain brings up trust.  I wish he would tell us why you can’t trust Obama, but he won’t.

In his closing argument, Obama brings up… guess what?… more spending!

As my optimism has faded, it had become apparent to me that, barring a major event over the next two weeks, tomorrow night is do-or-die time for my flawed candidate, Senator John McCain.  At the third and final debate, Sen. McCain absolutely must attack Sen. Obama’s character on the basis of his past associations.  McCain has no choice; the polls have turned enough now that simply “tying” or “holding his own” won’t cut it.  It has to be a game-changer.

The content is there.  From Obama’s ties to Pentagon-bomber Bill Ayers to his close association with America-cursing Jeremiah Wright to his financial dealings with subprime loan-pusher Frank Raines to his roots with ACORN, Obama has made many questionable decisions regarding his past associations.  Because of these questionable associations, it is very valid to ask, “Who will a President Obama choose for his cabinet, his ambassadors, and his advisors?”  The media will decry this as racism and character assasination, but it is a very valid line of questioning.

Why bring it up?  Remember, besides Jeremiah Wright, much of this has been ignored by the mainstream media.  A great deal of people, particularly non-Conservatives, don’t know much if anything about these associations.  Again, the media will decry it, but it will serve to educate the leaners and undecideds in the waning days of this election.  Sure, it opens McCain up for cross-examination, but the only questionable association in his past is in regards to the Keating Five scandal, which McCain admits was the biggest mistake of his life.  Obama has never said anything like that.  Obama has “condemned” Wright’s rhetoric and Ayers’s actions, but he has never said he shouldn’t have associated so closely with them.  He has never really addressed ACORN or Raines or Rezko or …

My fear is that McCain will take the “high road” and leave it all out of the discussion, and, I fear, that decision will cost any remaining chance he has to be our next President.

There’s been a great deal of talk describing the recent economic rescue package as “corporate welfare,” and, in part, it certainly is (Its also been a tremdous failure so far, by the way).  The people involved in making, selling, and trafficking these loans should be punished by the loss of their jobs and not saved by the taxpayer.  However, there is another group of people who will benefit greatly from this massive bailout: over-leveraged homeowners.

Often, these people are made out to be the victim of predatory lending practices and the loosely-regulated mortgage industry; however, every one of them signed on the bottom line.  When they signed this document, they were committing to repay the loan under a certain set of conditions governing interest rates, fees, and schedules.  If they were the “victims” of a low-doc loan that didn’t require income verification, they knew how much their income was.  Even if their predatory lender told them to lie about their income, the applicant knew they were lying.

Now, not surprisingly to anyone with half a brain, these mortgage holders are having difficulty making their payments and their houses are not worth what they owe on them.  So, they are looking, at best, at many years of negative equity in their homes, or, at worst, foreclosure.  Obviously, a good socialist can’t allow this to happen, so what do we do about it?  Bail them out, of course!

This is the exact wording from the bill:

In the case of a residential mortgage loan, modifications made under paragraph (1) may include –

(A) reduction in interest rates

(B) reduction of loan principal; and

(C) other similar modifications.

OK, so, if you got into a “bad mortgage” (translation: you are living in a house you can’t afford), then the government will either reduce your interest rate or reduce your principal.  In either case, this amounts to the government writing you a check to help you make your payment.  Sure, if they reduce your principal by $50,000, you have to give them the first $50,000 you make on the sale of the house, but that just means the government is giving you an interest-free loan.

Don’t forget that they have already been living in this house they can’t afford for several years; now, they are going to get to stay in it for as long as they can make the (reduced) payment!  So, if, five years ago, the family down the street from me with the same income bought a house twice as expensive as mine, they have been enjoying that house for five years already and will get to continue to enjoy it for the forseeable future at a reduced monthly cost.  All this time, I am living in a less expensive home with no help from the government.

Here’s an alternate plan: let me trade houses with the “victim” and make both monthly payments equal to mine.  Now, I can enjoy the house that they couldn’t afford in exchange for allowing them to continue to live in a house (albeit smaller) at all.  That way, people stay in their homes, housing values are stabilized, and the “bailout” money actually benefits someone who was smart enough to buy a house they could afford in the first place!

As you know, I have never been a fan of John McCain, but I have been optimistic about his chances to win the presidency.  While I am not convinced, as some are, that McCain has already lost the election, my optimism if fading… and rapidly.

What has changed?  Many things, but mostly his abysmal performance in the debate last night.  His first (and, essentially, only) offering was this $300 billion bailout part 2 (or 3 or 4 or… I’ve lost count), almost in the same sentence that he said he was against big government and earmarks and such.  McCain lost all credibility on the government spending/earmarks issues when he voted for the $700 billion of socialism. 

The “my friend” crap got downright creepy; in fact, his whole persona was creepy.  When he did have a good idea (health insurance), he couldn’t explain it.  Every time he had a chance to hammer Obama, he didn’t.

In an unbiased analysis, it was probably a tie, but McCain didn’t need a tie.  He needed to do something to turn the tide, but he didn’t.  What about taking the gloves off?  What about bringing up Obama’s questionable past associations?  Nothing… absolutely nothing!

Is it over?  Not yet; four weeks is an eternity in presidential politics.  But, McCain is going to have to do something drastic to change the direction of this race, and, frankly, I have very little confidence that he will.

Of course, all the news is that Obama is putting McCain away for good, and that this election may even turn into a landslide before its over.  Certainly, the news has not been good for McCain, and I am getting less confident by the day in regards to his chances.

Does McCain still have a chance?  Certainly he does, but it won’t be easy.  The VP debate was basically a non-event, which, given the lowered expectations the media put in play for Gov. Palin, has to be considered a moral victory for the GOP.  Tomorrow night’s debate is obviously a potential turning point, Sen. McCain must perform well.

The latest McCain campaign tactic is to begin to point out the questionable characters that Obama has associated with through the years.  I think this is an obvious tactic and should prove to be a very effective one.  Of course, the Obama camp will counter with the Keating Five card, but there is one major difference.  Sen. McCain, although he did nothing wrong in the Keating affair, has admitted his very presence at the meetings with the regulators was the biggest mistake of his life.  Obama, on the other hand, while condemning the actions and statements of Bill Ayers and Jeremiah Wright, has never admitted that his mere presence with them (one for 20+ years) was anything close to a mistake.  So, I think this argument helps him.

All of the “experts” are picking Obama to win right now based on recent polling data in several key battleground states.  Let’s take a look at the most accurate polls (Quinnipiac, Rasmussen, and Mason-Dixon by my analysis) in some of the key states:

• Florida — Obama +8 and tied
• Ohio — Obama +8 and -1
• Colorado — Obama +4 and +1 and tied
• Virginia — Obama +3 and -3
• North Carolina — Obama +3
• Michigan — Obama +4
• Indian — Obama -2
• Nevada — Obama +4

Just taking a quick average, all of these states fall within the margin of error.  If undecideds (which make up anywhere from 4 - 15% in these polls) break  58/42 for McCain like they did for Bush in 2004, that is a 1-2 point swing for McCain, which really makes these states dead-heats and puts them well within the margins of error.  I believe that there is reason to believe that the undecideds will break even harder for McCain because he is the “safe” choice (and the McCain strategy will underscore that over the next few weeks) and because I don’t think race polls well.  I believe a great deal of voters will say they are undecided to avoid sounding like they are racist because they didn’t choosing Obama.  Also, most of these polls include a huge majority of younger voters for Obama; historically the 18-29 demographic, for the most part, doesn’t show up on election day.

So, considering all of this, I believe we still have something very close to a dead heat and the remaining debates, and whatever other craziness (bailouts, stock markets collapses, foreign events) happens between now and then will go a long way to determining our next president.

In anticipation of our latest vote on socialism, the news is somewhat quiet today.  Most of the talk centers around tomorrow night’s vice-presidential debate, which, personally, I am greatly looking forward to.  Here’s some thoughts:

Gwen Ifill

A lot has been made of the fact that Gwen Ifill, the debate moderator, has a book about Obama due out on election day.  The thought is that she has a huge financial stake in the outcome of the election, and, obviously, she will sell many more books if Obama is elected than if he fades back into the oblivion that he came from.  I agree that she has every reason to be biased and, probably, will be to some extent, but, let’s be honest, who from the mainstream media were they going to get that was going to be unbiased?  And, besides that, Joe Biden has already “won” the debate, right?  Can’t you already hear the leftists at CNN and MSNBC telling you how unprepared Gov. Palin was and how over-her-head she is.  So, does a biased moderator really matter?

Also, shouldn’t McCain have figured this out already?  Its not like she was trying to keep the book a secret.  That doesn’t take away the fact that the Commission on Presidential Debates should be able to do better on the unbiased moderator front, but its just another sign that the McCain campaign is, unfortunately, pretty well clueless.

Palin vs. Biden

Here’s an interesting read from a former Palin opponent who debated her over two dozen times in the last Alaskan gubernatorial election.  Its fairly dismissive of Gov. Palin, but it does state very clearly that Joe Biden is in trouble.  What he also states correctly though is her greatest strength:

she has a canny ability to connect with the audience on a personal level

Sen. Biden, if you haven’t noticed, doesn’t.

What’s more, if Biden starts off on his long-winded policy wonk stuff, she’s going to cut him off at the knees with a one-liner.  And Biden can’t really say anything tough to her, because then he’s going to be perceived as being mean-spirited.

For the gamblers…

I am setting the over-under on Joe Biden gaffes at three.  Seriously, this could get funny.  He’s gonna say something really stupid before its over.  I hope he calls her “Toots” or “Sugar” or something really sexist like that.

My Expectations

I expect Gov. Palin to do very well.  I believe this because, first of all, I think she is an impressive individual, much more knowledgeable than the Katie Couric’s of the world would have us believe.  Secondly, I think her “people connection” skills will help play well against Biden’s old-school politician skills.  Either way, its going to be extremely interesting…