NationRight

Nate Silver at fivethirtyeight.com wrote an article today about turnout in Oregon.  If you don’t know him Nate is excellent at statistics, but he is an unabashed Obama supporter.  Usually, he doesn’t let his political leanings get in the way of his statistical analysis, but this time, he has missed it.

From Nate’s blog:

Uniquely among the 50 states, Oregon conducts the entirety of its voting by mail, which among other things can provide early clues as to what the electoral battlefield might look like elsewhere in the country.

Surprisingly, perhaps, turnout is down this year in Oregon. According to statistics compiled by the state’s Elections Division, the state has received 522,188 ballots through the first seven days of its early voting window. This compares with 645,473 ballots received during the first seven days of 2004 — a 19 percent decline.

He goes on to say:

More importantly, however, the counties most culpable for the depressed turnout appear to be those that voted substantially for George W. Bush in 2004.

This is true.  However, Oregon is won, not unlike several other Blue states, in the highly populated urban areas.  In fact, in 2004, John Kerry won Oregon 52-48% by winning only 8 of 36 counties in the state.  It just so happens that 3 of these counties (Multnomah, Washington, and Lane) are among the 4 most populous in the state.  In Multnomah County alone, Kerry won by 160,000 votes, more than twice the margin in the state as a whole.

So, turnout is down in the small Republican counties by 25-30% on average, and only down 15% or so in the large Democratic counties.  That doesn’t sound good for the GOP, right?  Well, if you take the math one step further and see what that means in terms of total voter turnout in the state, it is almost a wash.

Using the 2004 Bush/Kerry split and the 2008 turnout (based on Nate’s data), I calculate that the total vote swing towards the Democratic candidate is only 0.6%.  This is certainly not good for McCain, but 0.6% is nothing like the 6-10% “turnout swing” that the Obama campaign is hoping for.  The decreased turnout in Multnomah County alone hurts the Democratic candidate by as many votes as the decreased turnout in the seven most turnout-depressed GOP counties combined.

Certainly, this is only one state and there are many reasons why the turnout in Oregon is not necessarily representative of the country as a whole, but, based on these numbers, there is no reason to think that the turnout models of the last couple of elections are flawed.  If they are not, then many of these polls showing Obama ahead could be off drastically in his favor.

Again I say: McCain still has a decent chance of winning this thing!

Battleground State Update — 7 days to go…

Florida (27) — New polls suggest its still moving towards Obama.  Prediction: Obama

Ohio (20) — Moving towards Obama.  Prediction: Obama

North Carolina (15) – Prediction: McCain

Missouri(11) –Dead Heat.  Prediction: McCain

Nevada (5) – Slight Obama lead, but I think that this is a major “Bradley Effect” state.  Prediction: McCain

Indiana (11) — Prediction: McCain

West Virginia (5) — Prediction: McCain

North Dakota (3) — McCain lead, moving towards Obama.   Prediction: McCain

Virginia (13) — Polls continue to show Obama with a near-double digit lead.  I am starting to believe.  Prediction: Obama

Colorado (9) — Same story as in Virginia.  Prediction: Obama

New Mexico (5) –  Prediction: Obama

These predictions make it Obama 333 McCain 205.  McCain has got to make a positive move in Virginia, Ohio, Florida, and Colorado to win this thing, unless he can bring Pennsylvania back into play (which did show some positive movement today with Rasmussen showing an Obama +7).

I am going to try to update my take on the 11 battlegound states every day between now and the election.  I apologize for the “cheap” posts, but there is just not much else to blog about right now.

Florida (27) — Dead heat, moving towards Obama.

Ohio (20) — Dead heat, moving strongly towards Obama.  McCain needs this trend to reverse.

North Carolina (15) — Dead heat, moving towards McCain.  Rasmussen now shows a McCain lead.  I think McCain is OK here.

Missouri(11) –Dead heat, moving towards McCain.  The once-confusing polling is starting to consolidate, with all recent polls between +1 and -2 for McCain.

Nevada (5) — Slight Obama lead with little change in either direction.  McCain needs some improvement here.

Indiana (11) — Slight McCain lead with a difficult trend to identify.  The polling is all over the place from McCain+6 to Obama +10.  I have to believe that this state will stay red.

West Virginia (5) — Safe McCain lead.  This one is McCain’s.

North Dakota (3) — McCain lead, moving towards Obama.  North Dakota is not heavily polled, so it is a bit of a question mark.

Virginia (13) — Obama lead with not much movement either way.  I still believe the whole election hinges on Virginia.  Rasmussen released an Obama +4 today, so there is hope for McCain.

Colorado (9) — Growing Obama lead.  Again, an Obama +4 released today by Rasmussen gives some hope for McCain.

New Mexico (5) –  Growing Obama lead.  I think this one is Obama’s.

Assuming about a 4-point swing (Bradley or whatever), it still looks like Obama 277 - McCain 261.  McCain has to go get Virginia to win.

Let’s take a quick look at the trends in the battleground states:

Florida (27) — Dead heat, moving towards McCain, with the last three polls released (Rasmussen, Mason-Dixon, and Survey USA) all showing McCain +1 or +2.

Ohio (20) — Dead heat, moving towards McCain, with Rasmussen releasing a McCain +2 and Mason-Dixon releasing a McCain +1 last week.

North Carolina (15) — Dead heat, moving towards Obama.  The last poll showing McCain with a lead was realeased two weeks ago.

Missouri(11) –Slight Obama lead with little change in either direction.  Recent polling has been very confusing, ranging from McCain +1 to Obama +8

Nevada (5) — Slight Obama lead with little change in either direction.  The last poll, released Sunday, does show a tie, but McCain has not led in a poll in almost a month.

Indiana (11) — Slight McCain lead with little change in either direction.  This one is not as close as the liberals would like to think.  Obama has led only 2 polls in the last four months.  Rasmussen is McCain +7.

West Virginia (5) — Growing McCain lead.  Rasmussen released McCain +9 on Monday.

North Dakota (3) — McCain lead, moving towards Obama.  North Dakota is not heavily polled, so it is a bit of a question mark.

Virginia (13) — Obama lead with little change in either direction.  Mason-Dixon did release an Obama +2 yesterday, so things may be shifting.

Colorado (9) — Slight Obama lead with little change in either direction.  This one appears to be just outside the margin of error, the last four polls being either Obama +4 or Obama +5.

New Mexico (5) –  Growing Obama lead.  This one might be over, with Rasmussen’s latest showing Obama +13.

If these trends hold up and the polls are off just a little (call it Bradley Effect or whatever) turning all the slight Obama leads into McCain wins, that would give us Obama 277 - McCain 261.  McCain has to go get Virginia to win.

I know that the news has been bleak lately, and Obama leads in all polls.  I know that I have been entirely too optimistic about McCain’s chances in November.  And, yes, that optimism has faded quite a bit, but this election is not over yet.  And, hold on to your hat, John McCain still has a chance to be our next President.

How can I make such a preposterous claim?  Its simple math, really.  First of all, forget about all these national polls; they don’t count.  We all know that our presidential elections are decided by the electoral college.  Admittedly, that is hard to remember when we are deluged by these national polls every day.  You have to look at the individual states to see where things stand and determine whether a candidate has a chance.  So, let’s take a quick look.

Sen. Obama is a clear winner in 21 states, totalling 259 Electoral Votes (EVs).  These are: California (55), New York (31), Illinois (21), Pennsylvania (21), Michigan (17), New Jersey (15), Massachusetts (12), Washington (11), Maryland (10), Minnesota (10), Wisconsin (10), Connecticut (7), Iowa (7), Oregon (7), Hawai’i (4), Maine (4), New Hampshire (4), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3), Delaware (3), and D.C. (3).

On the other hand, Sen. McCain is a clear winner in 19 states, totalling 155 EVs.  These are: Texas (34), Georgia (15), Tennessee (11), Arizona (10), Alabama (9), Lousiana (9), Kentucky (8), South Carolina (8), Oklahoma (7), Arkansas (6), Kansas (6), Mississippi (6), Nebraska (5), Utah (5), Idaho (4), Alaska (3), Montana (3), South Dakota (3), and Wyoming (3).

So, that leaves 11 states as toss-ups.  Right now, based on a quick analysis of the polls, Obama leads in 8 of them, however, 5 of these (Florida (27), Ohio (20), North Carolina (15), Missouri(11), and Nevada (5)) are within the margin of error of most polls (4%).  McCain leads in three of them (Indiana (11), West Virginia (5), and North Dakota (3)) within the margin of error.

If all of these states break for McCain, he will pick up another 97 EVs, bringing the score to 260-252.  All of those states went for Bush in 2004, most by large margins, so this is not a tremendous stretch.  If McCain can close the polling gap another 2-3 points before election day and the undecideds break 2-1 for McCain, like they did for Bush in 2004, then a 4-point Obama leads evaporates and this scenario appears even more likely.

That leaves three states to determine our next President: Virginia (13), Colorado (9), and New Mexico (5).  Obviously, either candidate winning all three states is our next President, and Obama is polling 5-10% ahead of McCain in each state, so it doesn’t look good for McCain.  However, if he could find a way to win Virginia and Colorado, which appear to be the most competitve right now, he would win the election.

Another very interesting scenario would be McCain winning Virginia and New Mexico, which would set up a 269-269 tie, which would create a whole different scenario…

So, on election night, all eyes will be on Virginia early in the evening.  If Virginia breaks for Obama, then there is almost no scenario in which McCain becomes our next President.  However, if Virginia stays red, it could be another long, long election night.