NationRight

Here’s a quick guide to tomorrow night’s election coverage (All Times Eastern):

6:00 PM - Polls in most of Indiana close.  The extreme northwestern part of the state closes an hour later and is very Democratic.  McCain should win Indiana and will be ahead at 6:00 PM, but he needs to be way ahead.  If Obama is close in Indiana at 6:00 PM, it will be a long night for McCain.

7:00 PM - This is where the action really begins; all polls in Virginia and some in Florida close.  Both are virtual must wins for McCain.  If Obama takes both states, its over… go to bed.  If McCain wins only one of them, it better be Florida.  Also, polls close in Georgia at this hour.  If Obama is competitive in Georgia, that is a very bad sign for McCain.  If Obama wins Georgia, as some think he might, the rout is on.

7:30 PM - Polls close in North Carolina, Ohio, and West Virginia.  All three are must wins for McCain.  If at this point, it is competitve in Virginia and Ohio, it will be a long night.  If Obama has won either of these at this point, it is just about over.

8:00 PM - Lots of poll closings; things will get busy at this point.  The key states to watch at this point are Missouri, a McCain must win, Florida (the rest of the state closes at this time), and Pennsylvania.  Again, McCain MUST win Missouri; it will be very close.  If Florida appears to be headed toward Obama, then McCain must win Pennsylvania.  If McCain can with both (and Ohio and Virginia have already gone his way), then McCain pretty much has it won.  Basically, McCain must win three of the four: Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia.

9:00 PM - Polls close in several states, including Colorado.  If McCain has won only three of the “Magic Four,” then he must win Colorado.  Minnesota also closes at this hour, which has shown some movement toward McCain in the past few days; this would be a great substitute for (or addition to) Colorado for McCain.  In fact, if McCain wins Ohio, Florida, Virginia, Missouri, and Indiana, then Colorado creates a tie, but Minnesota would give McCain a 270-268 win.  Both of these states, however, are long shots, and this could be where Obama clinches it.

10:00 PM - Polls close in a few more states, most notably Nevada.  This would be the most possible tie-breaker for the tie scenario listed above.

At this point, it will either be an Obama victory or there is a key state or states that are too close to call.

I will blogging live Tuesday night, and I should be able to give some insight into what direction things are moving as early as 6:30 EST.

Battleground State Update – 24 hours to go…

Florida (27) — Race has tightened to a dead heat.  Rasmussen has McCain +1.  Prediction: McCain

Ohio (20) — Polling is erratic on election eve.  Most accurate pollsters from 2004 show McCain tied or +1.  Prediction: McCain

North Carolina (15) — McCain now leading in virtually all polls.  Prediction: McCain

Missouri(11) –Dead heat; McCain has momentum.  Prediction: McCain

Nevada (5) – McCain still searching for good news.  Prediction: Obama

Indiana (11) – Same as North Carolina. Prediction: McCain

West Virginia (5) — McCain way ahead.  No new polls in the past week. Prediction: McCain

North Dakota (3) — Surprisingly close.  Only polled once in the past 18 days.  Prediction: McCain

Virginia (13) — McCain closing fast; Rasmussen has Obama +4.  Momentum on McCain’s side.  Prediction: McCain

Colorado (9) — McCain closing somewhat.  Rasmussen has Obama +4.  Prediction: Obama

New Mexico (5) — Obama way ahead now.  Prediction: Obama

These predictions make it Obama 278 McCain 260.  Given this, McCain has three paths to victory that I see:

1. Win Colorado AND Nevada.   -OR-
2. Win Pennsylvania.   -OR-
3. Win Minnesota, which SurveyUSA put at Obama +3 today.

I would give him a 1 in 4 shot right now.  All you have to believe is that the polls are off 4-5 points in Obama’s favor to believe McCain can win!  We’ll find out tomorrow night, I guess!

You know what the difference is between Barack Obama and God?  God doesn’t think he’s Barack Obama!

Yesterday, in Cleveland, it began to rain on The One’s pure and perfect head.   He followed up with this bit of oratorical wisdom:

We’ve been through an 8-year storm, but a new day is dawning.  Sunshine is on the way. We just got two more days of these clouds.

We’ve known for a while that he thought he was the Messiah, and now he has vocalized it.  Now, I know it was metaphorical, but it just goes to show the way this guy thinks about himself.

Battleground State Update – 2 days to go…

Florida (27) — Latest polls show McCain within margin of error.  Prediction: Obama

Ohio (20) — Moving towards McCain.  Mason-Dixon has McCain +1.  Prediction: McCain

North Carolina (15) — Dead heat moving toward McCain.  Prediction: McCain

Missouri(11) –McCain widening his narrow lead.  Prediction: McCain

Nevada (5) – Polls converging around Obama +5.  Prediction: Obama

Indiana (11) – McCain slightly ahead. Prediction: McCain

West Virginia (5) — McCain way ahead now. Prediction: McCain

North Dakota (3) — Still surprisingly close.   Prediction: McCain

Virginia (13) — McCain closing fast; now within margin of error.  Prediction: McCain

Colorado (9) — Same story as Nevada.  Prediction: Obama

New Mexico (5) — Obama way ahead now.  Prediction: Obama

These predictions make it Obama 300 McCain 238.  McCain just needs Florida and either Colorado or Nevada to win.  If he can somehow make up ground in Pennsylvania, then he could substitute it for any of these three states to get to 270.  I would give McCain a 1 in 3 shot right now.

So, Barack Obama’s aunt is living illegally in Boston in, of all things, public housing!  I don’t even get that excited about illegal immigration, and this makes me mad!  There’s a bunch of questions that come to my mind here:

1. WIth a standing deportation order, how did she get into public housing?
2. Why didn’t Obama help her financially; I am selfish if I don’t want to “help” others with my taxes, but super-rich Obama has an aunt in public housing?
3. How does someone in public housing have enough money to give $280, as Aunti did, to a political campaign?
4. How does Obama not know about her living there illegally, as he claims?  Especially after she gave him money for his campaign?
5. Will the ACLU and their friends get upset about Aunti Zeituni’s privacy being violated after they ignored the privacy-raping of Joe the Plumber?
6. Did the McCain campaign have anything to do with this?  Either way, will they make it an issue?
7. Does this affect the election?

The plot thickens…

Is this a sign of things to come during an Obama administration?  This morning, reporters from three newspapers who have been flying on the Obama campaign plane for quite some time, are not being allowed to fly this weekend.  The reason given: limited space for the media.  I am sure it didn’t have anything to do with the fact that the editorial board of the three newspapers, The New York Post, The Washington Times, and the Dallas Morning News, all endorsed Sen. McCain.

A great take on this from Ross Balano: 

Maybe the in flight movie was that video of the Rashid Khalidi party and they had to be careful to make sure that the wrong people didn’t see it. Or I guess it could be that they are transporting Obama’s real birth certificate or the papers he wrote at Columbia University. Maybe Reverend Wright offered the pre flight prayer. Or could it be that Bill Ayers was autographing copies of his book that he dedicated to Sirhan Sirhan, the guy who killed Bobby Kennedy.

Where’s the outrage from the rest of the media? Why didn’t the other reporters get up and leave the plane? Do you remember the outrage when Helen Thomas was temporarily barred from her front row seat at press conferences? Where are you New York Times? Where are you Washington Post? Where are you Kansas City Star?

So, if you represent a paper that is not completely in the tank for Obama, you can’t get access to him?  What’s going to happen if he becomes President?  If there is any trouble in the White House, who’s going to be there to tell us about it?  I am sure that The Washington Post or the Daily Kos will do their best investigative reporting on everything that might go against The One and his government, aren’t you?