I believe that the only way to solve the health-care crisis is to change the way that we approach the challenge… I propose a Federal Health Board, modeled loosely on the Federal Reserve System, to do so.  It would create a public framework for a largely private health-care delivery system.  Its main job would be to develop the standards and structure for a health system tat ensures accessible, affordable, and high-quality care.  These standards would apply to federal health programs and contractors and serve as a model for private insurers.

That doesn’t sound like fully federalized health care but it certainly sets the stage for it.  I expect to see the Democrats move in that direction fairly quickly and with great vigor.

Socialized medicine is the holy grail for Democratic control of this country.  Once they have the entire population dependent upon the government for their health care, it will be very difficult to ever move back towards small government.  The attachment of older Americans to Social Security and Medicare is strong, but it will pale in comparison to the attachment of entire country to their Federal Health Board Benefits!  Republicans and all true conservatives MUST fight the socialization of our health care; at least now, the opposition has a leader to study!

I told you over two months ago that the $700 billion would be just the beginning.  It looks like the first ones to belly up to the Socialist Mother’s teat is the auto industry.  They want $25 billion to bail them out; most think it would cost far more than that, but that seems like a round number to get the milk flowing.  As you can guess, I am firmly against bailing out the auto industry.  Let’s take a look at why they have failed:

1. They make a product no one wants anymore, i.e. gas-guzzling vehicles
2. They were not diversified enough, i.e. only made money off trucks and SUVs
3. They make a poor quality product
4. They let their costs get out of control
5. They didn’t keep up with market trends, i.e. smaller, more efficient cars

These sound like fundamental business mistakes to me.  Businesses fail all the time and, almost every time, it is because of mistakes made by management, and usually it only takes one.  The Korean restaurant in my town had a great product that many people wanted, but they couldn’t keep their costs under control, so, guess what, they went under!  When you make five major mistakes, you can expect the results to be even worse.

All that said, I am sure that our newly-minted Socialist government will bail out the auto industry, too.  If nothing else, you will hear all about how we bailed out Wall Street (mostly GOP donors), so it would be unethical not to bail out Detroit (mostly Democratic donors), and this will break the will of those few conservative stalwarts left in the GOP.

So, the only question remains… who’s next?  Rick Moran has a good idea!

Its a bad time to be a Republican, right?  I’m not so sure.  I think any true conservative has been less than thrilled with the general direction of the Republican Party over the past couple of years, culminating in this ridiculous bailout-mania that is sweeping the economy.  First this bank, then that, then AIG, then all the banks, now Detroit… give me a break.  President Bush, Secretary Paulson, and many other Republicans have abandoned their Conservative principles in the face of this so-called crisis.  So, not surprisingly, the voters have abandoned them, and the Democrats now have a mandate for change from the people.

However, I believe that it took a near-disaster like the recent election to wake up the Republican Party, to guide the party back to its roots in Conservatism.  So, in an effort to stay positive, I am glad that we lost.  I am certainly glad that John McCain is no longer the standard-bearer of the Conservative movement.  But, we do need a leader or, preferably, a group of leaders.  Who will they be?

The Republican Governors met this week (after a fairly successful election for them, by the way) and the headliners were:

• Alaska Governor Sarah Palin
• Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty
• Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal
• South Carolina Governor Mark Sanford
• Mississippi Governor Haley Barbour

All of these, particularly the first three, are intriguing choices, and are, for the most part, solid conservatives.

The Republican National Committee will meet in January.  Among the likely candidates for the chairmanship are sure to be:

• Former Maryland Leiutenant Governor Michael Steele
• Current RNC Chairman Mike Duncan
• Former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich

Speaker Gingrich led the last “Republican Revolution” and I think he makes an intriguing choice as RNC Chairman.  I have great respect for Mike Duncan, but I cannot see re-electing him after what happened this year in the elections.

I think its important to recognize the true Conservatives that voted against the Socialist Bailout Plan.  The most interesting of these are Kansas Senator Sam Brownback and Louisiana Senator David Vitter.  Vitter, in particular, is interesting to me.  He is the first Republican to ever be elected Senator in the State of Louisiana.

Regardless of where the future leadership rests, the most improtant thing is that we don’t continue to abandon Conservatism.  We are Conservatives because we know that limited government, low taxes, strong families, and personal responsibility are the way to economic and social progress.  This election was not about America disagreeing with those ideals, it was about America disagreeing with our party’s abandonment of those ideals.

Other names tossed around for cabinet positions include Hilary Clinton, Robert Rubin, Lawrence Summers, Richard Holbrooke, and Eric Holder… nary an outsider among them!

So, where’s the change?

First of all, come January 20, 2009, Barack Obama will be my President.  I don’t say this lightly.  As President, he has my respect.  Although I disagree with him on most issues of the day, he has been elected by the people of this great nation.  I will defend him against attack, both physical and non-physical, from those outside this country.  A threat against Barack Obama is a threat against this nation.  This does not mean that I have to agree with him, but it does mean that, in disagreeing with him, I will be respectful of his position.  One thing that has bothered me about the left over the past eight years is their lack of respect for President Bush.  I am not talking about a SNL skit or something innocent; I am referring to Michael Moore and the “F the President bumper stickers” and Oliver Stone.  They have displayed an incredible lack of respect for the office of the President and the holder of that office.  I will not stoop to that level, and I encourage my fellow conservatives to join me.

Second, John McCain ran a terrible campaign.  I have never been a big fan of John McCain politically, and this campaign has done nothing to change my opinion.  He was soft on Obama, made too many stupid decisions, and basically mis-managed the whole thing.  Even now, 3 days after the election, his campaign is ripping Sarah Palin for this and that.  It was as bad a campaign as I have ever seen, and they paid for it with a blowout loss.

Third, I am glad John McCain was the candidate, because I am not sure that anyone could have been Sen. Obama this year.  Given his incredible amount of money and the tremendous negative opinions of President Bush, it was too big a hill to climb.  Since stronger conservatives like Mitt Romney were left out of the race, they live to fight another day.

Finally, there has been a great deal of talk about the Republican Party re-inventing themselves; to that, I say “Hogwash!”  The only thing the Republican Party needs to do is start acting like conservatives again.

———————–

9:53 PM EST - I am signing off.  North Carolina and Virginia will be all-nighters, but they really don’t matter at this point.  It appears that the Democrats will not get the sixty-seat supermajority in the Senate, so there’s not much else to follow.  I am going to spend some time with my family and pray for my new President.

9:37 PM EST - North Carolina is still very close also.

9:29 PM EST - I am trying to get a closer look at Virginia, about the only possible bright spot for John McCain.  It looks like he has a good chance for a close win.

9:18 PM EST - The networks just called Ohio… 3 minutes behind me.  They are now realizing that McCain has lost… 41 minutes behind me!  I hate it when I am right!

9:15 PM EST - Based on a county-by-county study, I think Ohio is going to go Obama by a substantial margin.  The rout is on…

8:59 PM EST - Studying North Carolina, I think McCain will win by a very slim margin, but there are no returns yet from the two largest counties.  If those counties follow the Florida pattern, Obama will win North Carolina also.  Things are looking better in Virginia, though.

8:37 PM EST - I don’t like what I am starting to see in Florida.  Obama is polling about 12 points ahead of the 2004 results in the seven largest counties.  I think you will see the networks call Florida for Obama before 9:00 EST, which will give the election to Obama.  I will go ahead and call Florida and the election for Obama now; for what that’s worth.

8:30 PM EST - Networks are calling Pennsylvania for Obama; I see no reason to think they are wrong.  This was not a must-win for McCain, but now Ohio, Florida, and Virginia become must-wins for McCain.  Overall, its not looking good.

8:22 PM EST - With 25% of the vote in, it looks like McCain has a really good shot to win Virginia.  Indiana is really close; much closer than I thought it would be.  Right now, I think Obama has it.  Very early, very small numbers are starting to come from Ohio, and it looks like it could be an Obama blowout there.

8:13 PM EST - Early results in Florida look fairly good for McCain, but it will be close.  North Carolina’s early results look good for McCain.  Ohio numbers are slow coming in.

7:54 PM EST - More results are coming in from Virginia.  The results are coming in at Obama +10 over 2004 results.  Polls were saying Obama would gain 13 points over 2004 results.  So, it may be a little closer than the polls say, but its starting to look like an Obama win.  If so, its just another nail in McCain’s coffin.  Florida, Pennsylvania, and Missouri close in six minutes.  If any of these states are called quickly for Obama, its over for McCain.

7:40 PM EST - No change in my thoughts about Indiana.  Some results from Virginia are coming in, and I think that McCain has a real shot here; its going to be close!

7:27 PM EST - Indiana will be close; right now, it looks like a 2-3 point Obama win, which will seal McCain’s fate very early.  Its amazing how the Indiana polls seem to have been very accurate and the Kentucky polls were very much off in Obama’s favor.  Let’s hope other states follow the Kentucky trend.  So far, with 2% in, Virginia appears to be following the Kentucky trend.  North Carolina and Ohio close in 3 minutes.

7:16 PM EST - Early numbers in two Virginia counties show the polls to be favoring Obama by about 3-points, which puts Virginia squarely in play.  Again, these are early and the sample size is small.

7:07 PM EST - Virginia results are slow coming in.  Basically, polls appear accurate in Indiana right now and about 13 points off in Obama’s direction in Kentucky.  So, bad news in Indiana; good news in Kentucky.

6:55 PM EST - Better news for McCain in Kentucky, where a few counties have significant returns in.  All are showing that McCain is doing better than Bush did in 2004.  Polls were predicting a 6-point move in Obama’s direction from 2004.  Virginia closes in five minutes.

6:49 PM EST - Wells County, IN is showing a similar 22-point swing towards Obama from 2004.  Steuben County, IN shows a 17-point Obama swing from 2004.  Both counties have significant precincts in.  This is not good for McCain at all.

6:43 PM EST - Vigo County, IN, which has picked the President every time in the last 100 years except once, is going 57-42 for Obama with 54% of precincts in.  This is not good news for McCain; Pres. Bush won Vigo by 7 points.  This is a 22-point swing for Obama.  The polls were predicted a 20-point swing in Indiana, so this is an indication that the polls, at least in Indiana, might be accurate.

6:36 PM EST - Some VERY early results are in from Indiana.  Its too early to say anything about them, though.

6:02 PM EST - Some polls now closed in Kentucky and Indiana.  In Indiana, we will be looking at how certain counties vote compared to 2004.  In Kentucky, the fate of Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell will tell us a great deal about how the night will go for Republicans in general.

5:30 PM EST - Exit polls pouring in and I am ignoring them.  Historically, these things either state the obvious or are completely wrong.  They will see that, GASP, new voters are for Obama, and, SHOCK, white men are for McCain, and, OMG, African-Americans are for Obama.

Take my advice: Just ignore them.

6:00 PM - Polls in most of Indiana close.  The extreme northwestern part of the state closes an hour later and is very Democratic.  McCain should win Indiana and will be ahead at 6:00 PM, but he needs to be way ahead.  If Obama is close in Indiana at 6:00 PM, it will be a long night for McCain.

7:00 PM - This is where the action really begins; all polls in Virginia and some in Florida close.  Both are virtual must wins for McCain.  If Obama takes both states, its over… go to bed.  If McCain wins only one of them, it better be Florida.  Also, polls close in Georgia at this hour.  If Obama is competitive in Georgia, that is a very bad sign for McCain.  If Obama wins Georgia, as some think he might, the rout is on.

7:30 PM - Polls close in North Carolina, Ohio, and West Virginia.  All three are must wins for McCain.  If at this point, it is competitve in Virginia and Ohio, it will be a long night.  If Obama has won either of these at this point, it is just about over.

8:00 PM - Lots of poll closings; things will get busy at this point.  The key states to watch at this point are Missouri, a McCain must win, Florida (the rest of the state closes at this time), and Pennsylvania.  Again, McCain MUST win Missouri; it will be very close.  If Florida appears to be headed toward Obama, then McCain must win Pennsylvania.  If McCain can with both (and Ohio and Virginia have already gone his way), then McCain pretty much has it won.  Basically, McCain must win three of the four: Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia.

9:00 PM - Polls close in several states, including Colorado.  If McCain has won only three of the “Magic Four,” then he must win Colorado.  Minnesota also closes at this hour, which has shown some movement toward McCain in the past few days; this would be a great substitute for (or addition to) Colorado for McCain.  In fact, if McCain wins Ohio, Florida, Virginia, Missouri, and Indiana, then Colorado creates a tie, but Minnesota would give McCain a 270-268 win.  Both of these states, however, are long shots, and this could be where Obama clinches it.

10:00 PM - Polls close in a few more states, most notably Nevada.  This would be the most possible tie-breaker for the tie scenario listed above.

At this point, it will either be an Obama victory or there is a key state or states that are too close to call.

I will blogging live Tuesday night, and I should be able to give some insight into what direction things are moving as early as 6:30 EST.

Florida (27) — Race has tightened to a dead heat.  Rasmussen has McCain +1.  Prediction: McCain

Ohio (20) — Polling is erratic on election eve.  Most accurate pollsters from 2004 show McCain tied or +1.  Prediction: McCain

North Carolina (15) — McCain now leading in virtually all polls.  Prediction: McCain

Missouri(11) –Dead heat; McCain has momentum.  Prediction: McCain

Nevada (5) – McCain still searching for good news.  Prediction: Obama

Indiana (11) – Same as North Carolina. Prediction: McCain

West Virginia (5) — McCain way ahead.  No new polls in the past week. Prediction: McCain

North Dakota (3) — Surprisingly close.  Only polled once in the past 18 days.  Prediction: McCain

Virginia (13) — McCain closing fast; Rasmussen has Obama +4.  Momentum on McCain’s side.  Prediction: McCain

Colorado (9) — McCain closing somewhat.  Rasmussen has Obama +4.  Prediction: Obama

New Mexico (5) — Obama way ahead now.  Prediction: Obama

These predictions make it Obama 278 McCain 260.  Given this, McCain has three paths to victory that I see:

1. Win Colorado AND Nevada.   -OR-
2. Win Pennsylvania.   -OR-
3. Win Minnesota, which SurveyUSA put at Obama +3 today.

I would give him a 1 in 4 shot right now.  All you have to believe is that the polls are off 4-5 points in Obama’s favor to believe McCain can win!  We’ll find out tomorrow night, I guess!

Yesterday, in Cleveland, it began to rain on The One’s pure and perfect head.   He followed up with this bit of oratorical wisdom:

We’ve been through an 8-year storm, but a new day is dawning.  Sunshine is on the way. We just got two more days of these clouds.

We’ve known for a while that he thought he was the Messiah, and now he has vocalized it.  Now, I know it was metaphorical, but it just goes to show the way this guy thinks about himself.

Florida (27) — Latest polls show McCain within margin of error.  Prediction: Obama

Ohio (20) — Moving towards McCain.  Mason-Dixon has McCain +1.  Prediction: McCain

North Carolina (15) — Dead heat moving toward McCain.  Prediction: McCain

Missouri(11) –McCain widening his narrow lead.  Prediction: McCain

Nevada (5) – Polls converging around Obama +5.  Prediction: Obama

Indiana (11) – McCain slightly ahead. Prediction: McCain

West Virginia (5) — McCain way ahead now. Prediction: McCain

North Dakota (3) — Still surprisingly close.   Prediction: McCain

Virginia (13) — McCain closing fast; now within margin of error.  Prediction: McCain

Colorado (9) — Same story as Nevada.  Prediction: Obama

New Mexico (5) — Obama way ahead now.  Prediction: Obama

These predictions make it Obama 300 McCain 238.  McCain just needs Florida and either Colorado or Nevada to win.  If he can somehow make up ground in Pennsylvania, then he could substitute it for any of these three states to get to 270.  I would give McCain a 1 in 3 shot right now.