NationRight

I will be updating this thread all night long.  Hit refresh to make sure that you have the latest posts.  Please leave comments…

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9:53 PM EST - I am signing off.  North Carolina and Virginia will be all-nighters, but they really don’t matter at this point.  It appears that the Democrats will not get the sixty-seat supermajority in the Senate, so there’s not much else to follow.  I am going to spend some time with my family and pray for my new President.

9:37 PM EST - North Carolina is still very close also.

9:29 PM EST - I am trying to get a closer look at Virginia, about the only possible bright spot for John McCain.  It looks like he has a good chance for a close win.

9:18 PM EST - The networks just called Ohio… 3 minutes behind me.  They are now realizing that McCain has lost… 41 minutes behind me!  I hate it when I am right!

9:15 PM EST - Based on a county-by-county study, I think Ohio is going to go Obama by a substantial margin.  The rout is on…

8:59 PM EST - Studying North Carolina, I think McCain will win by a very slim margin, but there are no returns yet from the two largest counties.  If those counties follow the Florida pattern, Obama will win North Carolina also.  Things are looking better in Virginia, though.

8:37 PM EST - I don’t like what I am starting to see in Florida.  Obama is polling about 12 points ahead of the 2004 results in the seven largest counties.  I think you will see the networks call Florida for Obama before 9:00 EST, which will give the election to Obama.  I will go ahead and call Florida and the election for Obama now; for what that’s worth.

8:30 PM EST - Networks are calling Pennsylvania for Obama; I see no reason to think they are wrong.  This was not a must-win for McCain, but now Ohio, Florida, and Virginia become must-wins for McCain.  Overall, its not looking good.

8:22 PM EST - With 25% of the vote in, it looks like McCain has a really good shot to win Virginia.  Indiana is really close; much closer than I thought it would be.  Right now, I think Obama has it.  Very early, very small numbers are starting to come from Ohio, and it looks like it could be an Obama blowout there.

8:13 PM EST - Early results in Florida look fairly good for McCain, but it will be close.  North Carolina’s early results look good for McCain.  Ohio numbers are slow coming in.

7:54 PM EST - More results are coming in from Virginia.  The results are coming in at Obama +10 over 2004 results.  Polls were saying Obama would gain 13 points over 2004 results.  So, it may be a little closer than the polls say, but its starting to look like an Obama win.  If so, its just another nail in McCain’s coffin.  Florida, Pennsylvania, and Missouri close in six minutes.  If any of these states are called quickly for Obama, its over for McCain.

7:40 PM EST - No change in my thoughts about Indiana.  Some results from Virginia are coming in, and I think that McCain has a real shot here; its going to be close!

7:27 PM EST - Indiana will be close; right now, it looks like a 2-3 point Obama win, which will seal McCain’s fate very early.  Its amazing how the Indiana polls seem to have been very accurate and the Kentucky polls were very much off in Obama’s favor.  Let’s hope other states follow the Kentucky trend.  So far, with 2% in, Virginia appears to be following the Kentucky trend.  North Carolina and Ohio close in 3 minutes.

7:16 PM EST - Early numbers in two Virginia counties show the polls to be favoring Obama by about 3-points, which puts Virginia squarely in play.  Again, these are early and the sample size is small.

7:07 PM EST - Virginia results are slow coming in.  Basically, polls appear accurate in Indiana right now and about 13 points off in Obama’s direction in Kentucky.  So, bad news in Indiana; good news in Kentucky.

6:55 PM EST - Better news for McCain in Kentucky, where a few counties have significant returns in.  All are showing that McCain is doing better than Bush did in 2004.  Polls were predicting a 6-point move in Obama’s direction from 2004.  Virginia closes in five minutes.

6:49 PM EST - Wells County, IN is showing a similar 22-point swing towards Obama from 2004.  Steuben County, IN shows a 17-point Obama swing from 2004.  Both counties have significant precincts in.  This is not good for McCain at all.

6:43 PM EST - Vigo County, IN, which has picked the President every time in the last 100 years except once, is going 57-42 for Obama with 54% of precincts in.  This is not good news for McCain; Pres. Bush won Vigo by 7 points.  This is a 22-point swing for Obama.  The polls were predicted a 20-point swing in Indiana, so this is an indication that the polls, at least in Indiana, might be accurate.

6:36 PM EST - Some VERY early results are in from Indiana.  Its too early to say anything about them, though.

6:02 PM EST - Some polls now closed in Kentucky and Indiana.  In Indiana, we will be looking at how certain counties vote compared to 2004.  In Kentucky, the fate of Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell will tell us a great deal about how the night will go for Republicans in general.

5:30 PM EST - Exit polls pouring in and I am ignoring them.  Historically, these things either state the obvious or are completely wrong.  They will see that, GASP, new voters are for Obama, and, SHOCK, white men are for McCain, and, OMG, African-Americans are for Obama.

Take my advice: Just ignore them.