Battleground State Update — Election Eve
Battleground State Update – 24 hours to go…
Florida (27) — Race has tightened to a dead heat. Rasmussen has McCain +1. Prediction: McCain
Ohio (20) — Polling is erratic on election eve. Most accurate pollsters from 2004 show McCain tied or +1. Prediction: McCain
North Carolina (15) — McCain now leading in virtually all polls. Prediction: McCain
Missouri(11) –Dead heat; McCain has momentum. Prediction: McCain
Nevada (5) – McCain still searching for good news. Prediction: Obama
Indiana (11) – Same as North Carolina. Prediction: McCain
West Virginia (5) — McCain way ahead. No new polls in the past week. Prediction: McCain
North Dakota (3) — Surprisingly close. Only polled once in the past 18 days. Prediction: McCain
Virginia (13) — McCain closing fast; Rasmussen has Obama +4. Momentum on McCain’s side. Prediction: McCain
Colorado (9) — McCain closing somewhat. Rasmussen has Obama +4. Prediction: Obama
New Mexico (5) — Obama way ahead now. Prediction: Obama
These predictions make it Obama 278 McCain 260. Given this, McCain has three paths to victory that I see:
- Win Colorado AND Nevada. -OR-
- Win Pennsylvania. -OR-
- Win Minnesota, which SurveyUSA put at Obama +3 today.
I would give him a 1 in 4 shot right now. All you have to believe is that the polls are off 4-5 points in Obama’s favor to believe McCain can win! We’ll find out tomorrow night, I guess!