Battleground Update
I am going to try to update my take on the 11 battlegound states every day between now and the election. I apologize for the “cheap” posts, but there is just not much else to blog about right now.
Florida (27) — Dead heat, moving towards Obama.
Ohio (20) — Dead heat, moving strongly towards Obama. McCain needs this trend to reverse.
North Carolina (15) — Dead heat, moving towards McCain. Rasmussen now shows a McCain lead. I think McCain is OK here.
Missouri(11) –Dead heat, moving towards McCain. The once-confusing polling is starting to consolidate, with all recent polls between +1 and -2 for McCain.
Nevada (5) — Slight Obama lead with little change in either direction. McCain needs some improvement here.
Indiana (11) — Slight McCain lead with a difficult trend to identify. The polling is all over the place from McCain+6 to Obama +10. I have to believe that this state will stay red.
West Virginia (5) — Safe McCain lead. This one is McCain’s.
North Dakota (3) — McCain lead, moving towards Obama. North Dakota is not heavily polled, so it is a bit of a question mark.
Virginia (13) — Obama lead with not much movement either way. I still believe the whole election hinges on Virginia. Rasmussen released an Obama +4 today, so there is hope for McCain.
Colorado (9) — Growing Obama lead. Again, an Obama +4 released today by Rasmussen gives some hope for McCain.
New Mexico (5) – Growing Obama lead. I think this one is Obama’s.
Assuming about a 4-point swing (Bradley or whatever), it still looks like Obama 277 - McCain 261. McCain has to go get Virginia to win.