Battleground State Update
Let’s take a quick look at the trends in the battleground states:
Florida (27) — Dead heat, moving towards McCain, with the last three polls released (Rasmussen, Mason-Dixon, and Survey USA) all showing McCain +1 or +2.
Ohio (20) — Dead heat, moving towards McCain, with Rasmussen releasing a McCain +2 and Mason-Dixon releasing a McCain +1 last week.
North Carolina (15) — Dead heat, moving towards Obama. The last poll showing McCain with a lead was realeased two weeks ago.
Missouri(11) –Slight Obama lead with little change in either direction. Recent polling has been very confusing, ranging from McCain +1 to Obama +8
Nevada (5) — Slight Obama lead with little change in either direction. The last poll, released Sunday, does show a tie, but McCain has not led in a poll in almost a month.
Indiana (11) — Slight McCain lead with little change in either direction. This one is not as close as the liberals would like to think. Obama has led only 2 polls in the last four months. Rasmussen is McCain +7.
West Virginia (5) — Growing McCain lead. Rasmussen released McCain +9 on Monday.
North Dakota (3) — McCain lead, moving towards Obama. North Dakota is not heavily polled, so it is a bit of a question mark.
Virginia (13) — Obama lead with little change in either direction. Mason-Dixon did release an Obama +2 yesterday, so things may be shifting.
Colorado (9) — Slight Obama lead with little change in either direction. This one appears to be just outside the margin of error, the last four polls being either Obama +4 or Obama +5.
New Mexico (5) – Growing Obama lead. This one might be over, with Rasmussen’s latest showing Obama +13.
If these trends hold up and the polls are off just a little (call it Bradley Effect or whatever) turning all the slight Obama leads into McCain wins, that would give us Obama 277 - McCain 261. McCain has to go get Virginia to win.