NationRight

I know that the news has been bleak lately, and Obama leads in all polls.  I know that I have been entirely too optimistic about McCain’s chances in November.  And, yes, that optimism has faded quite a bit, but this election is not over yet.  And, hold on to your hat, John McCain still has a chance to be our next President.

How can I make such a preposterous claim?  Its simple math, really.  First of all, forget about all these national polls; they don’t count.  We all know that our presidential elections are decided by the electoral college.  Admittedly, that is hard to remember when we are deluged by these national polls every day.  You have to look at the individual states to see where things stand and determine whether a candidate has a chance.  So, let’s take a quick look.

Sen. Obama is a clear winner in 21 states, totalling 259 Electoral Votes (EVs).  These are: California (55), New York (31), Illinois (21), Pennsylvania (21), Michigan (17), New Jersey (15), Massachusetts (12), Washington (11), Maryland (10), Minnesota (10), Wisconsin (10), Connecticut (7), Iowa (7), Oregon (7), Hawai’i (4), Maine (4), New Hampshire (4), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3), Delaware (3), and D.C. (3).

On the other hand, Sen. McCain is a clear winner in 19 states, totalling 155 EVs.  These are: Texas (34), Georgia (15), Tennessee (11), Arizona (10), Alabama (9), Lousiana (9), Kentucky (8), South Carolina (8), Oklahoma (7), Arkansas (6), Kansas (6), Mississippi (6), Nebraska (5), Utah (5), Idaho (4), Alaska (3), Montana (3), South Dakota (3), and Wyoming (3).

So, that leaves 11 states as toss-ups.  Right now, based on a quick analysis of the polls, Obama leads in 8 of them, however, 5 of these (Florida (27), Ohio (20), North Carolina (15), Missouri(11), and Nevada (5)) are within the margin of error of most polls (4%).  McCain leads in three of them (Indiana (11), West Virginia (5), and North Dakota (3)) within the margin of error.

If all of these states break for McCain, he will pick up another 97 EVs, bringing the score to 260-252.  All of those states went for Bush in 2004, most by large margins, so this is not a tremendous stretch.  If McCain can close the polling gap another 2-3 points before election day and the undecideds break 2-1 for McCain, like they did for Bush in 2004, then a 4-point Obama leads evaporates and this scenario appears even more likely.

That leaves three states to determine our next President: Virginia (13), Colorado (9), and New Mexico (5).  Obviously, either candidate winning all three states is our next President, and Obama is polling 5-10% ahead of McCain in each state, so it doesn’t look good for McCain.  However, if he could find a way to win Virginia and Colorado, which appear to be the most competitve right now, he would win the election.

Another very interesting scenario would be McCain winning Virginia and New Mexico, which would set up a 269-269 tie, which would create a whole different scenario…

So, on election night, all eyes will be on Virginia early in the evening.  If Virginia breaks for Obama, then there is almost no scenario in which McCain becomes our next President.  However, if Virginia stays red, it could be another long, long election night.