NationRight

Of course, all the news is that Obama is putting McCain away for good, and that this election may even turn into a landslide before its over.  Certainly, the news has not been good for McCain, and I am getting less confident by the day in regards to his chances.

Does McCain still have a chance?  Certainly he does, but it won’t be easy.  The VP debate was basically a non-event, which, given the lowered expectations the media put in play for Gov. Palin, has to be considered a moral victory for the GOP.  Tomorrow night’s debate is obviously a potential turning point, Sen. McCain must perform well.

The latest McCain campaign tactic is to begin to point out the questionable characters that Obama has associated with through the years.  I think this is an obvious tactic and should prove to be a very effective one.  Of course, the Obama camp will counter with the Keating Five card, but there is one major difference.  Sen. McCain, although he did nothing wrong in the Keating affair, has admitted his very presence at the meetings with the regulators was the biggest mistake of his life.  Obama, on the other hand, while condemning the actions and statements of Bill Ayers and Jeremiah Wright, has never admitted that his mere presence with them (one for 20+ years) was anything close to a mistake.  So, I think this argument helps him.

All of the “experts” are picking Obama to win right now based on recent polling data in several key battleground states.  Let’s take a look at the most accurate polls (Quinnipiac, Rasmussen, and Mason-Dixon by my analysis) in some of the key states:

• Florida — Obama +8 and tied
• Ohio — Obama +8 and -1
• Colorado — Obama +4 and +1 and tied
• Virginia — Obama +3 and -3
• North Carolina — Obama +3
• Michigan — Obama +4
• Indian — Obama -2
• Nevada — Obama +4

Just taking a quick average, all of these states fall within the margin of error.  If undecideds (which make up anywhere from 4 - 15% in these polls) break  58/42 for McCain like they did for Bush in 2004, that is a 1-2 point swing for McCain, which really makes these states dead-heats and puts them well within the margins of error.  I believe that there is reason to believe that the undecideds will break even harder for McCain because he is the “safe” choice (and the McCain strategy will underscore that over the next few weeks) and because I don’t think race polls well.  I believe a great deal of voters will say they are undecided to avoid sounding like they are racist because they didn’t choosing Obama.  Also, most of these polls include a huge majority of younger voters for Obama; historically the 18-29 demographic, for the most part, doesn’t show up on election day.

So, considering all of this, I believe we still have something very close to a dead heat and the remaining debates, and whatever other craziness (bailouts, stock markets collapses, foreign events) happens between now and then will go a long way to determining our next president.