Battleground State — Washington
No, that’s not a typo. Recent polling has shown that Sen. McCain has pulled into a statistical dead heat with Sen. Obama in the solid Blue state of Washington, so I will add it to my previous battleground state posts. By the way, I will start narrowing down the list and focusing on the most important battleground states in more detail in the coming weeks.
Washington (11 Electoral Votes)
Long-Term Voting Trends
Washington is a traditional blue state, having last voted Republican in a Presidential Elections in the Reagan landslide of 1984. Compared to the nation as a whole, the pattern is even stronger, with Washington voting more Republican than the rest of the nation only three times since World War II. Even mentioning Washington as a battleground state is surprising.
2004 Presidential Results
Kerry 53%, Bush 46%, Nader 1%
2006 Mid-Term Election Results
Washington held true-to-form in the 2006 midterms, with all incumbents winning, including a landslide by Democratic Governer Maria Cantwell. All incumbents held their ground in the House races, keeping the Washington Congressional delegation at 6-3 in favor of the Democrats; however, the three closest races were the ones involving the GOP incumbents. Washington is still a blue state.
2008 Primary Results
Republican: McCain 49%, Huckabee 24%, Romney 17%, Paul 8%, Others 2%
Democratic: Obama 51%, Clinton 46%, Edwards 2%, Others 1%
Current Polling
As a traditionally safe blue state, Washington is not the subject of a large number of polls. Only two polls have been released in the past month, with Rasmussen showing Obama +2 and Survey USA showing Obama +4, both within the margins of error. Both groups have been polling Washington monthly since June and the results have steadily moved from Obama +18 to today’s numbers over that time. The Democrats have to be worried about that trend.
NationRight Final Analysis
Suggesting that Washington is in play this year may seem crazy, but the polls back it up. It appears that John McCain’s selection of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as his running mate has made an impact in this closest-to-Alaska state. Furthermore, Washington is a state that Ralph Nader could pull just enough of the left-wing vote to make a difference. With the current trends nationally and, particularly, in the state itself, it appears that the Democrats are in trouble.
NationRight Prediction
McCain 51%, Obama 48%, Nader 1%