Battleground State — New Hampshire
This is the latest in a series of posts in which I will give my analysis of the so-called “Battleground States.” I will start from the West Coast and move East and, hopefully, will be able to finish up in a couple of weeks or less. I will revisit these a couple of times as the election nears.
New Hampshire (4 Electoral Votes)
Long-Term Voting Trends
New Hampshire’s electoral history has been a mixed bag, but has been largely Republican of late. However, the Democrats have won 3 of the last 4 elections, with President Bush winning by a narrow margin in 2000. Before President Clinton, however, New Hampshire voted Republican in every election but one since 1948. Compared to the nation as a whole, the pattern is basically the same. New Hampshire is the only traditional red state in the Northeast, but the trend has been to the left over the past two decades.
2004 Presidential Results
Kerry 50%, Bush 49%, Nader 1%
2006 Mid-Term Election Results
Continuing the recent left-turn, both New Hampshire House incumbents, who were Republicans, lost, one by 10%. Incumbent Democratic Governor, John Lynch , won in a landslide.
2008 Primary Results
Republican: McCain 37%, Romney 32%, Huckabee 11%, Guiliani 9%, Paul 8%, Others 3%
Democratic: Clinton 39%, Obama 36%, Edwards 17%, Others 8%
Current Polling
Current Presidential Polling in New Hampshire shows Barack Obama’s lead narrowing significantly, with Rasmussen and ARG showing Obama up by only 1%. All polls in the last two months have shown a statistical dead heat.
NationRight Final Analysis
New Hampshire has been moving to the left rapidly over the past two decades and can be called a solid battleground state in the last three election, including this one. This is the state that launched John McCain into the front-runner position back in January and gave Hillary Clinton a surprising win in a race that Obama was polling as high as +13% in the days leading up to it. If the over-polling for Obama holds up in today’s polls, then McCain is actually in front right now. With a scant 4 delegates, there will be less campaigning in this state than any other battleground state, so there is no reason to believe that today’s polls won’t hold up.
NationRight Prediction
McCain 51%, Obama 48%, Nader 1%