Battleground State — Florida
This is the latest in a series of posts in which I will give my analysis of the so-called “Battleground States.” I will start from the West Coast and move East and, hopefully, will be able to finish up in a couple of weeks or less. I will revisit these a couple of times as the election nears.
Florida (21 Electoral Votes)
Long-Term Voting Trends
Florida’s electoral history has been mostly Republican with only Southerners Bill Clinton (’96) and Jimmy Carter (’76) winning the state as Democrats in the last 10 elections. However, at times, it has been close, including the legendary 2000 election where hanging chads and other new words and phrases entered our vocabulary. That election was so close, though, that we forget that 2004 was really not that close, with President Bush winning by 5%. With the exception of ‘76, Florida has polled more Republican than the nation as a whole in every election since the 1950’s.
2004 Presidential Results
Bush 52%, Kerry 47%, Nader 1%
2006 Mid-Term Election Results
Incumbent Democratic Senator Bill Nelson easily won a second term in 2006 over chad-counter Katherine Harris. Two house seats switched from Democrat to Republican in 2006, both by relatively small margins. The most significant of these was in FL22, where long-term incumbent Clay Shaw lost to Democrat Ron Klein. Republican Charlie Crist easily won the gubernatorial race, replacing term-limited Republican Jeb Bush.
2008 Primary Results
Republican: McCain 36%, Romney 31%, Giuliani 15, Huckabee 14, Paul 3%, Others 1%
Democratic: Clinton 50%, Obama 33%, Edwards 14%, Others 3%
(un-contested due to violation of DNC rules)
Current Polling
Recent Presidential Election polling in Florida has tightened up a bit, but the polls still favor Sen. McCain. Recent polls from Rasmussen, Survey USA, and Public Policy Polling have shown McCain with leads of 2%, 6%, and 3%, respectively, while Quinnipiac’s most recent poll shows Obama +2%. Most of these are within the margins of error, so its close to a statistical dead heat with Mccain holding a slight edge.
NationRight Final Analysis
Florida is most famous for the craziness surrounding the 2000 election. In 2004, however, President Bush made strides and won by 5%. There is no real reason to expect that to change, and the current polls mostly reflect that. Also, if, as I fully believe, Mitt Romney is chosen by Sen. McCain as his running mate, McCain’s lead will widen due to support from retired New Englanders living in Florida, a large constituency in the state.
NationRight Prediction
McCain 52%, Obama 47%, Nader 1%