Battleground State — Virginia
This is the latest in a series of posts in which I will give my analysis of the so-called “Battleground States.” I will start from the West Coast and move East and, hopefully, will be able to finish up in a couple of weeks or less. I will revisit these a couple of times as the election nears.
Virginia (13 Electoral Votes)
Long-Term Voting Trends
Historically, Virginia is a red-state, voting Republican in the last ten presidential elections and 13 of the last 14. Furthermore, Virginia has voted more Republican than the nation as a whole for every election since 1948.
2004 Presidential Results
Bush 54%, Kerry 46%
2006 Mid-Term Election Results
In a major win for the Democrats, Jim Webb beat incumbent Republican George Allen for one of the Virginia’s Senate seats; the margin was less than 8,000 votes. All eleven Virgnia house seats were won by the incumbents, leaving Virginia’s overwhelmingly Replubican delegation at 8-3. Interestingly, Virginia voted 57-43 to ban same-sex marriage, a traditional conservative vote.
2008 Primary Results
Republican: McCain 50%, Huckabee 41%, Paul 5%, Romney 4%
Democratic: Obama 64%, Clinton 35%, Others 1%
Current Polling
Presidential Election polling in Virginia has been close over the past couple of months. Most recent polls show a statistical dead heat, with both Rasmussen and SurveyUSA showing McCain with a 1% advantage. Neither candidate has polled higher than the Margin of Error since mid-May, so it appears to be a true battleground.
NationRight Final Analysis
The Democrats have been making strides in Virginia in recent years, as evidenced by the election of a Democratic Governor in 2005 and a Democratic Senator in 2006. This is a state that the Obama campaign thinks they can win. Both candidates fared well in Virginia in the primaries and Virginia will receive a great deal of attention in the fall campaign. I believe it will be closer, but I believe that Virginia’s long-standing Republican leanings will keep the state firmly in the Red.
NationRight Prediction
McCain 52%, Obama 48%