Battleground State — Ohio
This is the latest in a series of posts in which I will give my analysis of the so-called “Battleground States.” I will start from the West Coast and move East and, hopefully, will be able to finish up in a couple of weeks or less. I will revisit these a couple of times as the election nears.
Ohio (20 Electoral Votes)
Long-Term Voting Trends
Ohio has enjoyed the Battleground State label for the better part of two decades now, voting twice for President Clinton and then twice for President Bush, all by fairly narrow margins. The state has a remarkably centrist position over the past 15 elections, never varying by more than 7% from the national popular vote totals, although its important to note that most of those variances have been to the GOP side. In other words, Ohio has been consistently more conservative than the nation-at-large, if only by a small margin.
2004 Presidential Results
Bush 51%, Kerry 49%
2006 Mid-Term Election Results
The GOP was dealt a big blow in 2006 when Republican Senator Mike DeWine lost his bid for a third term to Democrat Sherrod Brown by a large margin. All ten incumbent Republican Cngressmen retained their seats, although many were by razor-thin margins. One open Republican seat was won by a Republican, while one was lost when Democrat Zack Space won the 18th District. The Democrats retained control of all six of their House seats, including two that were up-for-grabs. That leaves the Ohio House delegation at 11-7 GOP. Democrat Ted Strickland won the Gubenatorial election in a landslide over moderate Republican Secretary of State John Blackwell.
2008 Primary Results
Republican: McCain 55%, Huckabee 33%, Paul 5%, Others 7%
Democratic: Clinton 54%, Obama 44%, Others 2%
Current Polling
Recent polling shows a very tight race. The latest Quinnipiac poll shows Obama ahead by 2%, while the latest Rasmussen poll shows McCain ahead by 10%. This is typical of Ohio polling this year. Polls taken at the exact same time have shown differences of 10+%, so it is very difficult to know where this race stands right now.
NationRight Final Analysis
As has become the norm in recent elections, Ohio will receive a large amount of attention in this race, and it will be difficult to predict. McCain polled well in the primaries and should benefit from some of the more moderate Democrats who showed up strongly for Sen. Clinton in the March primary.The loss of a Senate seat and the Governor’s mansion in 2006 does not bode well for the GOP; has the tide turned in Ohio? Still, this is an ever-so-slightly leaning red state, and it will take a strong push from Sen. Obama to change that inertia.
NationRight Prediction
McCain 51%, Obama 49%
NationRight Prediction
McCain 51%, Obama 49%