The Daily News — Wednesday, August 6, 2008
A quick look at today’s top headlines…
“Obama stalls in public polling”
http://news.yahoo.com/s/politico/20080806/pl_politico/12334
So, the mainstream media is finally acknowledging that their favorite candidate is not far enough ahead. Could it be because people are sick of them shoving him down our throats? A 2-3% lead in early August is nowhere near enough for “The One” to be crowned in November. If McCain selects Romney, which I think is all but certain, that lead is more than gone. Plus, McCain will hammer Obama in the debates; if he was as agressive with Romney as he was, imagine what he will do with Obama. As the article states,
Three demographic groups have generally kept Obama ahead in the past two months: African-Americans, youth and Hispanics. But a lead based on those groups is a tenuous one. The youth vote, notorious for not meeting expectations, must turn out in significantly higher numbers than in past elections. Obama must continue to win the black vote nearly unanimously and still turn out new African-American voters. McCain must continue to underperform with Hispanics by about 10 percentage points compared to Bush in the summer of 2004.
None of this will happen, and he will lose another couple of points there. Plus, I believe that the polls are slanted in the Democratic direction by a few percentage points to begin with (More on that in a later post). So, a 2-3% Obama lead in August is a 4-5% McCain win in November.
But, none of that really matters, since I think I remember something about the Electoral College deciding Presidential Elections. See my series on Battleground States for details about what really matters in November.
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“McCain ad asks if Obama is ready to help families”
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080806/ap_on_el_pr/mccain
Its nothing groundbreaking, but at least it looks like the McCain camp is getting more agressive in the campaign. Maybe they took my advice.