NationRight

This is the latest in a series of posts in which I will give my analysis of the so-called “Battleground States.” I will start from the West Coast and move East and, hopefully, will be able to finish up in a couple of weeks or less. I will revisit these a couple of times as the election nears.

Michigan (17 Electoral Votes)

Long-Term Voting Trends

Michigan has been an all-or-nothing state for both parties over the past decades.  From 1972 to 1988, Michigan went Republican for five straight elections.  Since then, the state has been painted Blue each year  The last two years, though, the margins have been very slim for the Democrats.  Compared to the rest of the nation, Michigan has traditionally leaned slightly to the Democratic side.

2004 Presidential Results

Kerry 51%, Bush 48%, Nader 1%

2006 Mid-Term Election Results

Democratic Senator Debbie Stabenow won her second term by a wide margin.  The balance of the Michigan House Delegation remained the same at 9-6 Republican (14 incumbents won and 1 Republican won a formerly Republican seat that was up-for-grabs.  Democratic Governor Jennifer Granholm won re-election by a spread of 14%.  A ballot amendment restricting affirmative action by the University of Michigan was famously passed by a wide margin in 2006; a stance that was in-line with the Bush Administration.

2008 Primary Results

Republican: Romney 39%, McCain 30%, Huckabee 16%, Paul 6%, Others 9%

Democratic: Clinton 55% (no one else on the ballot, as Michigan violated DNC rules)

Current Polling

Recent polling shows Obama holding anywher from a  2-4% lead.  Several polls back in the late spring showed McCain with a lead of as much as 4%.

NationRight Final Analysis

This one will get very interesting before its all over.  Michigan is a state plagued by economic woes for the past several years, a point that would seem to favor the Democrats.  A few questions could still shake this race up.  What will happen at the Democratic Convention to Michigan’s delegates?  If they make a push to be seated (they are Clinton votes, remember) and Sen. Obama tries to compromise that in some way, how will that play with Michigan voters?  The biggest wildcard here is the Republican VP choice.  Mitt Romney’s father, George Romney was elected Governor of Michigan three times (1962, 1964, and 1966) before leaving to join President Nixon’s cabinet.  The Romney family is well known and popular in Michigan; Mitt’s brother George has been a candidate for Michigan Attorney General and serves on the board of trustees of Michigan State University.  A McCain-Romney ticket would change the game in Michigan.  This may be the state that determines the whole Presidential Election.

NationRight Prediction

McCain 50%, Obama 48%, Nader 2% (with Romney)

Obama 50%, McCain 47%, Nader 2%, Barr 1% (without Romney)