Battleground State — Indiana
This is the latest in a series of posts in which I will give my analysis of the so-called “Battleground States.” I will start from the West Coast and move East and, hopefully, will be able to finish up in a couple of weeks or less. I will revisit these a couple of times as the election nears.
Indiana (11 Electoral Votes)
Long-Term Voting Trends
Indiana has been so red for so long, it is hard to believe that I am even writing about it as a battleground state. Indiana last voted Democratic in 1964 and, even then, by only 12% (the national popular vote was a 22% spread for the Democrats).
2004 Presidential Results
Bush 60%, Kerry 39%, Badnarik 1%
2006 Mid-Term Election Results
One Senate seat was on the ballot in 2006 in Indiana, and Incumbent Republican Dick Lugar won his sixth term in an 87-13 landslide against a Libertarian candidate; the Democrats did not challenge this seat. The U.S. House races were a failure for the GOP. Three Republican incumbents lost their seats, while four others held on to their seats. All three Democratic incumbents retained their seats. The gubernatorial election will be held in 2008. Republican incumbent Mitch Daniels appears to have a slight edge over Democratic challenger Jill Long Thompson.
2008 Primary Results
Republican: McCain 78%, Huckabee 10%, Paul 8%, Romney 4% (Huckabee and Romney had previously withdrawn from the race)
Democratic: Clinton 51%, Obama 49%
Current Polling
Because of its solid GOP history, polling has been sparse in Indiana. The only poll taken in the last 3 months shows Obama +1. Several polls from April are all over the place, ranging from McCain +8 to Obama +8. I am certain that the pollsters will be busy in the next few weeks in Indiana, since it is receiving attention as a Purple state in the mainstream media.
NationRight Final Analysis
There are a couple of factors working for Obama in this race. One is the obvious proximity to his home state of Illinois. The other is his bond with popular Indiana Democratic Senator Evan Bayh. In fact, the blogosphere is abuzz today with rumors that Bayh will be Obama’s Vice-Presidential selection. Even with these factors and despite a couple of old polls showing this as a close race, I just cannot see how Indiana will flip 21 points in four years.
NationRight Prediction
McCain 55%, Obama 43%, Barr 2% (maybe its 50/48/2 with Bayh as VP)