Battleground State — Missouri
This is the latest in a series of posts in which I will give my analysis of the so-called “Battleground States.” I will start from the West Coast and move East and, hopefully, will be able to finish up in a couple of weeks or less. I will revisit these a couple of times as the election nears.
Missouri (11 Electoral Votes)
Long-Term Voting Trends
Missouri has long been a difficult state to “color.” In the past 15 elections, Missouri has voted Republican 8 times and Democratic 7 times… a true “Purple State.” Missouri voted twice for President Clinton and twice for President George W. Bush. It is interesting to note that the last time Missouri polled for a losing Presidential candidate was 1956 when they chose Adlai Stevenson, who lost to Dwight Eisenhowser.
2004 Presidential Results
Bush 53%, Kerry 46%, Bednarik 1%
2006 Mid-Term Election Results
One Senate seat was on the ballot in 2006 in Missouri, and Incumbent Republican Jim Talent lost his seat to Democrat Claire McCaskill. All nine incumbent Congressmen, 5 Republicans and 4 Democrats, retained their seats by comfortable margins. The gubernatorial race will be held in 2008, and it appears that Democratic Attorney General Jay Nixon has the upper hand in that race.
2008 Primary Results
Republican: McCain 33%, Huckabee 32%, Romney 29%, Paul 5%, Others 1%
Democratic: Obama 49%, Clinton 48%, Others 3%
Current Polling
Recent polls from Rasmussen and SurveyUSA show McCain +5, but Research 2000’s latest poll (from early July) shows Obama +5. The trend, however, is in Obama’s direction, as some polls had McCain up by double-digits several months ago.
NationRight Final Analysis
This is one that will probably come down to the wire. Missouri’s recent history has shown a slight shift away from the GOP and will probably elect a Democratic Governor this November. Current Presidential polling is shifting towards the Obama camp, and the GOP has to be getting nervous here. The Governor’s race could become a hot topic and change the turnout or demographics of the turnout, making this race truly unpredictable. I expect to see a lot of attention on Missouri in the closing months of the campaign.
NationRight Prediction
McCain 49%, Obama 49%, Barr 2% (too close to call right now)