NationRight

This is the latest in a series of posts in which I will give my analysis of the so-called “Battleground States.” I will start from the West Coast and move East and, hopefully, will be able to finish up in a couple of weeks or less. I will revisit these a couple of times as the election nears.

New Mexico (5 Electoral Votes)

Long-Term Voting Trends

New Mexico has been a true swing state for quite a long time, voting Republican 7 out of the last 12 Presidential elections.  Most recently, New Mexico swung to the GOP in 2004 after voting Clinton/Clinton/Gore in the previous three elections.  The last 5 New Mexico Presidential votes have all been decided by margins of less than 10%.  Remarkably, New Mexico has been an almost perfect mirror of the national popular vote; the results in New Mexico have been within 5% of the national vote 12 of the last 14 elections.  This is a true battleground state.

2004 Presidential Results

Bush 50%, Kerry 49%, Nader 1% (Margin was ONLY 5,988 votes)

2006 Mid-Term Election Results

One Senate seat was on the ballot in 2006 in New Mexico, and long-term Incumbent Democrat Jeff Bingaman won his 5th term in Washington.  Two Republican and one Democratic incumbent held on to their House Seats, although the District 1 race was won by the GOP by less than 900 votes.  Popular Democratic Governor Bill Richardson won re-election easily.  Richardson, of course, competed briefly in the Democratic primary, eventually withdrawing and endorsing Obama.  He is considered a long-shot in the Vice-Presidential selection process.

2008 Primary Results

Republican: McCain 86%, Paul 14% (All other candidates had already conceded)

Democratic: Clinton 49%, Obama 48%, Others 3%

Current Polling

New Mexico is on the Battleground list due to some close polls back in April and May.  Since then, the polls have shifted dramatically in Obama’s direction.  The last two polls from Rasmussen have come back Obama +6 and +8.

NationRight Final Analysis

Although there was some DNC apprehension about New Mexico back in the spring, it appears this race is opening up quite a bit.  Bill Richardson, although not likely to be Obama’s VP choice, will still lead a strong push in the fall.  I believe the trend will continue and Obama will win New Mexico.  This is probably the last time we will discuss New Mexico as a Battleground State

NationRight Prediction

Obama 51%, McCain 45%, Barr 3%, Nader 1%