Battleground State — Colorado
This is the latest in a series of posts in which I will give my analysis of the so-called “Battleground States.” I will start from the West Coast and move East and, hopefully, will be able to finish up in a couple of weeks or less. I will revisit these a couple of times as the election nears.
Colorado (9 Electoral Votes)
Long-Term Voting Trends
Colorado voted for Bill Clinton in 1992, the only time a Democrat has taken the state since 1964. However, the Republican margins in recent years have been shrinking. When compared to the national election results, Colorado has almost always voted more Republican than the nation as a whole. This is a long-term Red State.
2004 Presidential Results
Bush 52%, Kerry 47%, Nader 1%
2006 Mid-Term Election Results
In the 2006 Mid-Terms, there was no Senate race in Colorado. On the House side, three Democrats retained seats, as did two Republicans, all by fairly comfortable margins. The Republicans also retained one “up-for-grabs” (no incumbent running) seat by a wide margin. However, the Democrats picked up a formerly Republican seat in District 7 that was up-for-grabs. Also, the Governor’s Mansion changed hands, as Democrat Bill Ritter easily won the gubenatorial election, formerly held by wildly popular Republican Bill Owens, who could not seek re-election due to term limits. As an aside, Owens was an advisor to Mitt Romney’s failed presidential bid. It is interesting to note that passed a Constitutional Amendment banning same-sex marriages, a nod to the state’s conservative history.
2008 Primary Results
Republican: Romney 60%, McCain 19%, Huckabee 13%, Paul 8%
Democratic: Obama 67%, Clinton 32%, Others 1%
Current Polling
Its close. The latest poll, from Quinnipiac has McCain +2; however, Rasmussen has Obama +3. However, the trend is clearly in the McCain direction.
NationRight Final Analysis
This one has to be a little scary for the McCain camp. Colorado is a true Red State, but Obama was strong on Super Tuesday and McCain was anything but. Also, the 2006 Mid-Term results show a slight shift to the left in the state. The polls for the past few months have shown Obama with a sometimes commanding lead. However, these polls have been tightening up over the past few weeks, and, now, it is a statistical dead heat. With the tremendous support for Romney in Colorado, I think a McCain/Romney ticket and the Red history of Colorado make this a win for McCain.
NationRight Prediction
McCain (with Romney) 51%, Obama 47%, Barr 1%, Nader 1%