Battleground State — Nevada
This is the first in a series of posts in which I will give my analysis of the so-called “Battleground States.” I will start from the West Coast and move East and, hopefully, will be able to finish up in a couple of weeks or less. I will revisit these a couple of times as the election nears.
Nevada (5 Electoral Votes)
Long-Term Voting Trends
Nevada voted twice for Bill Clinton and then twice for George W. Bush, all by narrow margins. Clinton is the only Democrat to win Nevada since 1968. When compared to the national election results, Nevada has only voted more Democratic than the nation as a whole once in the last 15 elections.
2004 Presidential Results
Bush 51%, Kerry 48%, Nader 1%
2006 Mid-Term Election Results
In the 2006 Mid-Terms, Sen. John Ensign (R) retained his seat by a wide margin. All three Nevada House seats went Republican, including one seat that was up-for-grabs. Also, a Republican won the gubenatorial election by a 4% margin.
2008 Primary Results
Republican: Romney 51%, Paul 14%, McCain 13%, Huckabee 8%, Thompson 8%, Others 6%
Democratic: Clinton 51%, Obama 45%, Edwards 4%
Current Polling
Its a statistical dead heat in the polls right now. Rasmussen has Obama +2, Mason-Dixon has McCain +2, Zogby shows a tie. All of these are within the margins-of-error. The trend is generally in the Obama direction.
NationRight Final Analysis
Based on history, Nevada should be painted Red in November. However, the trends in the long-term history and the recent polls are in the Democratic direction. What’s more, McCain did not fair well in the Republican caucus last winter. There is also the Ron Paul factor in Nevada; how will his followers vote? I think McCain could be in trouble here, but, if he selects Romney, who was huge in Nevada’s caucus, as his running mate, he should pull this one out.
NationRight Prediction
McCain (with Romney) 50%, Obama 47%, Barr 2%, Nader 1%